NFL WRITE-UP
Week 16 NFL games
Sunday, December 27
Seahawks (5-9) @ Packers (9-5)-- Green Bay had five-game win streak ended by last-second Roethlisberger TD pass last week; Packers won four of its last five home games- they're 4-3 vs spread as home favorite. Pack held last seven opponents under 100 rushing yards (average of 67.7 ypg); Rodgers has been sacked only seven times in last five games (41 times in first nine). Seahawks lost last two games 34-7/24-7; eight of their nine losses are by 11+ pts, with Seattle 0-6 as road underdog this year. Four of last five Seattle games, three of last four Packer games stayed under the total. NFC North home favorites are 4-8 against spread.
Raiders (5-9) @ Browns (3-11)-- Oakland (0-4) was outscored 115-23 in four games that followed its first four wins; this is fourth road game in five weeks for Raider team that won its last two road games, and is 3-2 in last five games. Browns covered last five games, winning last two 13-6/41-34; Cribbs ran two kicks back for TDs last week. Browns ran ball for 212.3 ypg last three weeks, with Harrison for 286 last week, 3rd-best in NFL history. Unsure what effect Holmgren hiring will have on team rest of year. AFC West road dogs are 6-8 vs spread in non-division tilts. AFC North home favorites are 7-6 vs spread. Four of last five Oakland games went over the total.
Chiefs (3-11) @ Bengals (9-5)-- Toughest of weeks for Bengal squad that had to go to Louisiana for Henry's funeral Tuesday; Cincy lost last two games but won last four home games, allowing 12.3 ppg (five TDs on 41 drives)- they're 0-4 vs spread as home favorite this year. Underdogs covered 12 of 13 Bengal games, with one pick 'em. Chiefs lost last four games (0-4 vs spread) by 29-31-6-7 points, allowing average of 36 ppg (12 TDs on 46 drives). Four of last five Chief games went over total; five of last seven Bengal games stayed under. AFC West road underdogs are 6-8 vs spread. AFC North favorites are 8-10 vs spread, 7-6 at home.
Bills (5-9) @ Falcons (7-7)-- Brohm gets first NFL start at QB against Falcon team that needs two more wins to have back/back winning years for first time in franchise history. Bills are 3-4 on road, 4-1 as road underdog, losing away games by 1-28-24-3 points- only twice in seven road games has Buffalo lost by more than a FG. Atlanta is 2-4 in last six games, losing last two at home, both with Redman at QB- they're 4-2 vs spread as favorite, 4-1 at home. NFC South favorites are 10-7 vs spread, 7-5 at home. AFC East underdogs are 7-9 vs spread, 7-5 on road. Last four Atlanta games, eight of last ten Buffalo tilts stayed under the total.
Texans (7-7) @ Dolphins (7-7)-- Elimination game in crowded AFC Wild Card race. Houston is 6-2 outside its division, winning last five non-divisional tilts; they're 4-3 on road, 3-1 as road underdog (only non-cover was a 28-21 loss at Arizona, when they tied game 21-all after being down 21-0 at half'). Miami is 4-2 at home, but is favored at home for just second time this year- Dolphins' last three games were all decided by four or less points. Texans outscored last three opponents 31-6 in second half. AFC South road underdogs are 5-5 this season. AFC East home favorites are 6-5 against spread. Six of Houston's last seven games stayed under the total.
Panthers (6-8) @ Giants (8-6)-- Big Blue needs two wins and help to get into playoffs; they scored 31-38-45 points in last three games (13 TDs on last 31 drives), are 2-3 in last five home games, 1-4 as home favorite, with home wins by 6-37-3-7 points. This is likely Giants' last game in this stadium. Carolina coach Fox could very well be Giants' defensive coordinator next year; Panther defense allowed four TDs on last 45 drives. Carolina is 2-5 on road, 3-3 as a road dog, losing away games by 8-14-10-11-10 points. NFC South road dogs are 8-6 against spread; NFC East home favorites are 8-7. Carolina's last five games all stayed under the total.
Buccaneers (2-12) @ Saints (13-1)-- Unlikely results last week, with Saints losing, Bucs winning. Saints are 4-3 as home favorite, with four home wins by 14+ points. New Orleans won first meeting 38-7 in Week 11; Saints had 183 passing yards, 187 rushing with four takeaways (+4). Bucs had scored three TDs on last 48 drives before upsetting Seahawks 24-7 last week; they're 4-4 as road underdog, losing away games by 13-3-19-28-2-3-10 points. NFC North home favorites are 2-3 vs spread in division games. Four of last five Saint tilts, last five Tampa Bay games stayed under the total. Saints need to win here to stay ahead of Vikings in race for home field thru NFC playoffs.
Jaguars (7-7) @ Patriots (9-5)-- Jags lost three of last four games; too bad they lost twice to Colts by total of six points- they're 3-3 as road dog, losing away games by 2-41-17-17 points (won at Texans/Jets). New England won all seven home games- they're 4-3 as home favorite, winning home games by 1-16-6-59- 10-17-10 points. Four of last five Jaguar games, last four Patriot games stayed under total. AFC East home favorites are 6-5 against spread. AFC South road underdogs are 5-5 vs spread. Patriots are 2-4 if they allow 20+ points, 7-1 if they allow less. Jaguars scored 20+ twice in their last five games. This game is way more important to Jacksonville, whose season depends in it.
Ravens (8-6) @ Steelers (7-7)-- Pitt snapped five-game skid with unlikely win last week, scoring on last play of game for 37-36 win (Big Ben passed for 503 yards). Steelers lost 20-17 at Baltimore in Week 12 (-7), in game Big Ben was out for (backup Dixon was 12-26/145 passing). Ravens are 2-4 on road, with wins at Chargers/Browns- they're 2-3 vs spread as the dog. Baltimore won its last two games 48-3/31-7, but foes were doormats Chicago/Detroit. Seven of last eight Baltimore games stayed under total. Underdogs are 8-2 vs spread in AFC North games this season. This is the pivotal game of weekend in playoff race; Steeler win creates wild scenario going into Week 17.
Broncos (8-6) @ Eagles (10-4)-- Red-hot Philly won last five games (4-1 vs spread), with last three wins by 27-7-14 points; they've won five of last six home games, are 3-2 as home favorite, winning home games by 20-19-23-3-14 points. Denver needs wins to stay in front of pack in Wild Card chase; they're 2-6 in last eight games, losing last two games 28-16/20-19- they're 2-2 as road dog, with road losses by 23-10-12 points. AFC West road dogs are 6-8 vs the spread. NFC East home favorites are 8-7. Bronco DB Dawkins is one of all-time great Eagle players; he returns to Linc here. Five of seven Eagle road tilts went over the total.
Rams (1-13) @ Cardinals (9-5)-- Playoff-bound Arizona was killing Rams at half in first meeting 21-3, but Warner sat out second half (concussion) and it got close late, with Rams throwing pass into end zone on last play to try and tie game (Arizona won 21-13, -9). St Louis lost last six games (5-2 vs spread in last seven); they're 4-3 as road underdog, losing away games by 28-2-35-3-8-40 points. Cardinals clinched division title, could still move up to #3 seed for playoffs; they're 2-3 as home favorite, winning by 7-11-13 points (3-3 SU at home). Home favorites are 4-2 vs spread in NFC West games. Four of the last five Arizona games stayed under the total.
Lions (2-12) @ 49ers (6-8)-- QB Stanton gets first start for Lions; he played second half vs Arizona last week, when Detroit rallied from 17-0 deficit to tie Redbirds before losing 31-24. Lions are 1-5-1 as road underdog, losing on road by 18-24-26-12-17-10-45 points- they lost last four games overall, allowing an average of 34 ppg (allowed 10 TDs on last 25 drives). 49ers are 4-2 as favorite this year, winning home games by 13-35-4-17-5 points, losing to Falcons and Cardinals at Candlestick. NFC North road dogs are 2-8 vs spread outside of its division; NFC West home favorites are 5-5. Three of 49ers' last four games stayed under the total.
Jets (7-7) @ Colts (14-0)-- No idea how long Manning, other starters playing here, but fact that they've had 10 days since last game has to increase chances of their playing longer here. Jets had 3-game win streak snapped with an ugly home loss to Falcons last week; they're 4-3 on road, 1-2 as road dog, losing by 14 at Saints, 4 at Miami, 17 at Patriots. Jet defense allowed just two TDs on last 48 drives, but facing high-powered Colts (15 TDs on last 38 drives) is a major step up in class. Indy is 3-4 as home favorite, winning its home games by 2-17-4-3-1-10-12 points. AFC South home favorites are 7-9 vs spread in non-division games. Last four Jet games stayed under total.
Cowboys (9-5) @ Redskins (4-10)-- Washington had covered five games in a row before 45-12 debacle vs Giants Monday night; Redskins are 3-4 at home, beating Rams/Bucs/Denver- they're 6-3 vs spread as underdog, 2-2 at home. Dallas could miss playoffs if they slip up, Giants win twice; they beat Skins 7-6 in first meeting (-10) in Week 11 running ball for 153 yards but not scoring until 2:41 was left in game. Dallas is 4-3 on road; they're 1-3 as road favorite, winning away games by 13-6-4-7 points (4-3 SU). Underdogs are 8-2 against spread in NFC East games, 2-2 at home. Seven of last eight Washington games went over the total. Six of last seven Dallas games stayed under.
Monday, December 28
Vikings (11-3) @ Bears (5-9)-- Minnesota lost last two road games by 13-19 points (three TDs on last 23 road drives); they've allowed 27.3 ppg their last four road games (1-3). Vikings waxed Chicago 36-10 four weeks ago (-10.5), outrushing Bears 159-43, converting 12-18 on 3rd down (Favre was 32-48/378 passing). Cutler has been awful at night, Bears have been terrible since its bye, losing eight of last ten games (0-7 vs spread last seven games)- they're 1-7 vs spread as underdog this year, losing home games by 20-4-7 points (4-3 SU). Favorites are 7-2-1 vs spread in NFC North games, 3-0 on road. Last six tilts for both teams stayed under the total.
<!-- / message --> 
ffice
></o
